June 23, 2008


probabilities

Tyler Cowen suggests:

If no one agrees with you, you should be quite worried. If only a small number of people agree with you, you still should be quite worried. I don’t think it’s a numbers game, but I think whatever view you end up with, it doesn’t have to be a majority point of view, that reasons have weight, not just adding up whoever agrees with you. But you still ought to say at the end of the day, look all those other people are against me, maybe I think I’m right probability 57 to 43, but on any truly controversial question among intelligent people, you should never think it’s 95 to 5 in your favor.

What do you think?

posted by Deron Bauman in advice, economics, intelligence, psychology 

comments

3 Responses to “probabilities”

  1. Cindy Scroggins on June 23rd, 2008 at 8:59 am

    I think it all hinges on the phrase among intelligent people. The fact is, some people of superior intelligence and/or insight have had great ideas that were roundly rejected by their great-minded peers. But that’s rare. In most cases, I think it’s true that, if others in your intellectual peer group find fault with your opinion or stance, you should listen very carefully to their arguments.

  2. Yuri Victor on June 23rd, 2008 at 9:08 am

    C’mon. Everyone knows Tyler is always right.

  3. tde on June 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 pm

    That’s just silly.

    Nascar and deep fried onions at Outback Steakhouse are the shizzle according to the masses.

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