August 23, 2011

How long do countries have until their populations disappear?

It never really occurred to me, until just now, that this could actually happen.


  1. Joel Bernstein on August 23rd, 2011 at 1:02 pm


  2. Joel Bernstein on August 23rd, 2011 at 2:51 pm

    And where’s the US on this chart?

  3. Dave Vogt on August 24th, 2011 at 10:16 am

    I assume that this is for countries with fertility rates below 1 only, Joel. The US birth rate is more than one child per parent, so assuming that remains unchanged there will just be more and more Americans ad nauseam (which might be already.)

    This chart, as the author saliently mentions, depends on current trends remaining unbroken.

    [edit] I had said “linear progression” but a constant rate greater than 1 will end up with exponential growth.