October 1, 2011

Keep the fire

I went to the Amazon launch event on Wednesday and wrote four stories about it for Wired (one before, one during, and two afterwards).

My first story, written the night before, was about how Amazon’s tablet launch could still go wrong. One of the worries I had — that Amazon would neglect its E Ink line — was pretty well addressed by the shit-ton of new, cheap E Ink readers Amazon presented. But I still worry a little bit about these two:

1. It turns out there really is only an iPad market, not a tablet market. This could work a couple of ways. Maybe people really do prefer 10-inch tablets that are closer to netbook substitutes than seven-inch devices that are closer to e-readers with superpowers. Maybe the iPad, Nook Color, marked-down TouchPad and off-brand Android tablets sold at Best Buy have exhausted the market for third devices in the middle of a recession more than everyone thought. Maybe people will love Amazon’s tablet, but will use it to surf the web, watch free movies, and read free books, but won’t actually buy anything, turning the tablet experiment into an unprofitable mess. Maybe Steve Jobs is a magical being from an alternate future who really is just better at this than everyone else. (Don’t discount that last possibility. Some very capable people at Dell and Intel once thought running Windows 7 on a five-inch screen was stone genius.)

2. Everyone else gets their shit together. When Apple’s team broke open the tablet market, they painted a huge bullseye on their backs. Other companies got serious. Apple had many advantages, and so far has handily fended off all comers. (Possibly because, again, Steve Jobs may or may not actually be a Jedi.)

Amazon’s advantage in launching a seven-inch Android tablet is that it doesn’t have to compete directly with the iPad. Its disadvantage is that it has to compete with everyone else. The Motorola Xoom isn’t perfect, but it’s also already almost a year old. Don’t you think Google and Motorola can do better? Don’t you think Samsung and Cyanogen can? I think they could.

Also, even if you sell an ungodly amount of books, magazines, and video to Americans, you still can’t sell as many iPads as Apple will, if only because more than half of Apple’s market is outside the US. How can Amazon keep its global fire burning?

posted by in books, technology | * | 16 comments 

comments

  1. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 4:39 pm

    Thanks for this post, Tim. (And we know you’re not a shill because the idea of shilling on clusterflock is so ridiculous. Boogers on the dash.)

  2. Rick Neece on October 1st, 2011 at 5:04 pm

    Thank you, Tim. I re-lived my post-high school years in just a few moments. All the angst alive again. Thank you. I thought I was dead, but I live.

    I am alive!

    BTW, I sold my I-pad to a friend. I just didn’t (want to) use it. I’m finding a little bit of friendship with my android. Though, still, it’s not much more than a phone to me. A phone I carry on my person all the time (and answer when I recognize the number).

    My laptop and I are joined at my lap. Am I old? Am I dead? Where am I? Is this heaven?

  3. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    Rick? Standing at the corner of Twelfth Street and Vine?

  4. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 5:20 pm

    Also, I do not know what to buy next. I am down to the MacBook Pro and the Phone of Slightly Above-Average Intelligence. I lead a mobile life, partly from desire and partly from necessity, and am thinking I need . . . you know, something. Something beyond what I’ve got.

    So I follow current developments with interest.

  5. Dave Vogt on October 1st, 2011 at 5:21 pm

    Thanks Tim. Now I’m listening to the smoothest music in the world.

  6. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 5:29 pm

    I gots to figure out what it is I need and what it is I want. As, you know, a User.

  7. Rick Neece on October 1st, 2011 at 5:35 pm

    Whatever it is, you can prolly buy it on the corner of twelfth and vine.

  8. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 5:39 pm

    Dang. I’ll be there ’round 1:00 am CDT. That will give me plenty of time to ponder.

  9. Rick Neece on October 1st, 2011 at 5:52 pm

    Sheila, We’ll put clean sheets on the guest bed and leave the back door unlocked. Shhh, don’t wake us. We’ll have biscuits and gravy in the morning.

  10. Deron Bauman on October 1st, 2011 at 5:59 pm

    The Fire seems like it’s going to work. Also, Windows 8 on a tablet seems like it’s going to work. Then we’d have three tablety things in the market place and that seems like the right amount of divergence and friction to keep things moving. Right now it just seems like there’s Apple and a bunch of ghosts.

  11. Sheila Ryan on October 1st, 2011 at 6:07 pm

    I’m still trying to figure out whether I really need (or want) a tablet and if so, why.

    I think I need to make some kind of list.

  12. Deron Bauman on October 1st, 2011 at 8:16 pm

    I’m trying to decide if I want a Kindle.

  13. Cooper on October 2nd, 2011 at 12:18 am

    I do some surfing with the iPad, but probably its greatest use for me is creating digital art (though I’ve also done a lot of writing on it.) It doesn’t replace my laptop. For reading I go to “real” books and to my Nook, which is “first generation” wifi only. I ain’t got no smart phone. I barely use the phone I got.

  14. Sheila Ryan on October 2nd, 2011 at 12:21 am

    Renner, you slay me.

  15. Erica on October 2nd, 2011 at 8:24 pm

    I only love my Kindle since I read 2-3 books at a time. Also it’s great for travel once you reach 10,000 feet. I have a Mac desktop currently and want something more portable again. MacBook air, iPad or MacBook pro?

  16. Deron Bauman on October 2nd, 2011 at 8:27 pm

    If I were getting something portable, and needed it to do more than consume media, I’d get a MacBook Air.

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