this post is about football statistics
The first thing Romer did was analyze every fourth down during the first quarter of every NFL game between 1998 and 2000. (He had help from a computer program.) Then, he figured out the fluctuating value of a first down at each point on the football field. After all, a first down was more valuable for a team if it occurred on an opponents two yard line than on their own twenty yard line. The next thing Romer calculated was the statistical likelihood of going for it on fourth down under various circumstances and actually getting a first down. He also calculated the probability of kicking a successful field goal from various spots on the field.
if this then that
I’ve only played with it a minute, but on Sunday Robin Sloan posted about ifttt which is a cool little service that will link multiple online services. It’s simple and genius.
In his post Robin said it was still invite only but I had no problem just walking on over and signing up. That said, I now have 5 invites if you have any trouble signing up and want to give it a try, just drop a line in the comments and I’ll share.
while Texas burns
Gov. Perry avers that we can handle ourselves down here, and I believe it. That’s why he’s slashed the Forest Service (an agency swollen with vampires, and vegans) budget and cut fire department funding by 75 percent, leaving us with a hose and a prayer. The hose isn’t doing much, but I can tell that prayer is helping. In fact, I know it’s helping.
As Perry is keen to remind us, Texas has the power to secede from this sinful Union if we feel like it, leaving the rest of the country to wander around with no infrastructure, eating each other like in The fucking Road, stymied, burned to bubbles and unable to follow-through on its own metaphors, sort of like Texas right now, actually. Well this is how we want it, I think!
headline of the day, II
Shopper arrested with live lobsters in shorts
“writing, especially on the internet, is hardly the quickest path to fame and fortune”
I don’t mean to end on a crushing note. There’s huge value in internet publishing beyond its minute potential for saving you from ever needing “a real job.” But for a while I thought it would have that potential for me and it didn’t. Instead, what I got was an unexpected community of people to learn from, and a chance to work with people like Lloyd. People interested in making good stuff on the internet, even if it never gets us anything. That’s the reason to try your hand at web-publishing: it’s a beach-head onto the wider world of substantive accomplishment and relationships than any Twitter account or Facebook page is. But it hardly guarantees you of anything but a modest square of sand.
headline of the day, 2
Man arrested for chomping on snake
headline of the day
Pa. man charged again for putting ribs in pants
barack obama is your new bicycle
The too.
quote out of context
And then, obviously, because I am perverse, I was put off it by its ubiquity and other people’s enthusiasm. Others’ loss of perspective about its merits made me lose my own. Maybe I was trying to lower the average human opinion of the oeuvre closer to what it deserves by artificially forcing mine well below that level. Incidentally, this is where the parallels with my view of football end: even if that were a struggling minority sport only played by a few hundred enthusiastic amateurs, I would still consider it an overrated spectacle that lures vital funding away from snooker.
hat tip: Sarah
logo out of context
Dear Clusterflock
What book(s) are you reading?
Deadbeat Diary, 4
It’s a slow day on the internet and I guess that means it’s about damn time I write this (previously on Clusterflock).
I’ve actually been trying to write this for a few weeks now but can’t quite capture exactly how it feels. Cheap metaphors didn’t really work and a factual description fell short of what I want to convey. I tried making the investor into a villain…and the realtor and the government and the bank and myself and the builder and…
The truth is I don’t know how to write about what came next.
Our first offer was in. It was made clear to us that our only option was to accept the offer and wait. We were told not to wait for more and at the same time that the bank would probably decline such a low offer. It was about getting in the system. It was about making our intentions clear.
At this point we were still current on our mortgage. Alicia was still working. And getting in the system seemed important. How long could it take for them to decline our offer?
We waited.
The bank requested bank statements, tax returns, paystubs, a hardship letter…
We waited.
Levi was born.
We waited.
Sometime in late November the Realtor told us the investor wanted some concessions. They wanted us to sign a promissory note and bring cash to closing.
No thanks, we said.
The bank would not approve the offer.
It was time to start over.
I realized later the investor had no incentive to sell. As long as we continued making our payment, the investor continued getting a monthly check. Our mistake, perhaps, was trying to do it right – trying to anticipate the moment we wouldn’t be able to afford our payment and take action before it came to that.
We missed our first payment in November.
weehuggers
Alicia is researching cloth diapers for Levi and thought this video was something the flock might enjoy.
“a deep remorse that you ever doubted him, and a profound appreciation for his contribution to the continued awesomeness of the world”
To prove to you that you love him, Michael Bay knows that he must turn everything up to 11,000 this time around. He has to blaze a pure, bright after-image of his Bay-ness in your mind, so that you walk out of the theater blinking and spitting up lung pieces and knowing what the fuck Michael Bay is all about. Your eyeballs will be twice as bludgeoned. Your adult diaper will be twice as heavily laden! This time, it’ll be in 3D! All of the excesses from the previous two films will be doubly in excess — except for the hip hop Autobots, who are gone.
headline of the day, II
Ohio deputies: Woman sprayed us with breast milk
facebook status updates, hostage edition
I’m currently in a standoff … kinda ugly, but ready for whatever.
I love u guyz and if I don’t make it out of here alive that I’m in a better place and u were all great friends.
Got a cute `Hostage’ huh
Well i was lettin this girl go but these dumb bastards made an attempt to come in after i told them not to, so i popped off a couple more shots and now were startin all over again it seems…
Pickering Pick – “Like a River”
My good friend’s newest album, Tiger Balm, was released by Yer Bird Records today. This is Sam’s 8th 10th album, but this is the first to be released with the support of a label. It’s impossible for me to offer an opinion without bias so I’ll just let you listen.
The Mothball Fleet
Getting inside the ships was usually not straightforward, and sometimes impossible. MARAD locks them down tight, but there are so many possible entrances that persistence often paid off. One of the first orders of business each trip was finding a place to sleep. The ships are often stinky from mold, mildew, PCBs, and decay, so a room with windows that opened was preferable. We typically slept in the captain’s room where we found comfy couches, convertible beds, lots of space, and plenty of light during the daytime.
I was probably 9 or 10 the first time I asked about the Mothball Fleet (which in my family was just known as the Moth Fleet). It’s most likely we were driving to visit a friend of mine who’d moved to Vacaville. Warships aren’t particularly appealing to me, but I’m pretty sure 9 year-old me would have jumped at the chance to spend a weekend on the decaying ships – heck, I’m pretty sure 30 year-old me would jump at the chance to spend a weekend on the decaying ships, but I’d want to bring Phil.
But it exists…
The hoverbike:
Thus far, it has done little more than hover three feet while tethered to the ground.
headline of the day
Ruling Favors a 10-Inch Citizen of France
the lion’s choice
When is fighting a lion not a matter of life or death?
It’s up to the lion. If he chooses to withdraw, or surrender, and lets me tie him up, then I will not kill him and the fight will end. But, like I said, if it comes down to either me or him, I will have to kill him. But I don’t want to kill the lion, nor am I planning on it. I want to make that clear.
Opening doors for women requires their cooperation
If you get to the door before a woman, opening the door is simple. Just open the door and hold it for her. Things get awkward when you and your gal arrive at the door at the same time or she gets there before you. In these types of situations, opening doors becomes much like a dance. Each sex has a role they need to fill for the operation to successfully work. If your lady arrives at the door before you or at the same time as you, she should step slightly to one side so that you can open the door without knocking her on her tuckus. If she opens the door for herself, that’s not a problem.
headline of the day
Cyclists lament hard time peddling nude ride in Edmonton
quote out of context
For her performance Nobili, who says she uses dance as a form of prayer, lies spread-eagled in front of the altar clutching a crucifix or twists and turns as in pole-dancing routines.
