Keep the fire
I went to the Amazon launch event on Wednesday and wrote four stories about it for Wired (one before, one during, and two afterwards).
My first story, written the night before, was about how Amazon’s tablet launch could still go wrong. One of the worries I had — that Amazon would neglect its E Ink line — was pretty well addressed by the shit-ton of new, cheap E Ink readers Amazon presented. But I still worry a little bit about these two:
1. It turns out there really is only an iPad market, not a tablet market. This could work a couple of ways. Maybe people really do prefer 10-inch tablets that are closer to netbook substitutes than seven-inch devices that are closer to e-readers with superpowers. Maybe the iPad, Nook Color, marked-down TouchPad and off-brand Android tablets sold at Best Buy have exhausted the market for third devices in the middle of a recession more than everyone thought. Maybe people will love Amazon’s tablet, but will use it to surf the web, watch free movies, and read free books, but won’t actually buy anything, turning the tablet experiment into an unprofitable mess. Maybe Steve Jobs is a magical being from an alternate future who really is just better at this than everyone else. (Don’t discount that last possibility. Some very capable people at Dell and Intel once thought running Windows 7 on a five-inch screen was stone genius.)
2. Everyone else gets their shit together. When Apple’s team broke open the tablet market, they painted a huge bullseye on their backs. Other companies got serious. Apple had many advantages, and so far has handily fended off all comers. (Possibly because, again, Steve Jobs may or may not actually be a Jedi.)
Amazon’s advantage in launching a seven-inch Android tablet is that it doesn’t have to compete directly with the iPad. Its disadvantage is that it has to compete with everyone else. The Motorola Xoom isn’t perfect, but it’s also already almost a year old. Don’t you think Google and Motorola can do better? Don’t you think Samsung and Cyanogen can? I think they could.
Also, even if you sell an ungodly amount of books, magazines, and video to Americans, you still can’t sell as many iPads as Apple will, if only because more than half of Apple’s market is outside the US. How can Amazon keep its global fire burning?
Meet the Flockers: Tim Carmody
Deron said he was going to offer me a Clusterflock login before he heard I got a job, so I said, crap, don’t let that stop you, I blog all over. Color me Flocked.
1. I’m a media and technology writer;
2. I have a little boy (Noah) who is three years old;
3. I have a BA in Math and a PhD in Comparative Literature;
4. I was born in Detroit in 1979 and (mostly) live in Philadelphia (since 2002);
5. I sometimes write at kottke.org;
6. I almost always write at snarkmarket.com;
7. I like poetry, indie rock, comic books, old hip-hop, and NBA basketball;
8. I think chicken is delicious.
I’m this guy (in the middle):
I’m happy to be included in my favorite social network that isn’t one.
Ask me anything.
